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Texas
The Most Important Factor in Texas Battleground Races
by Transparency USA
11/16/2020

For the last two years, the most fiercely fought contest in Texas politics has been the Democrats’ effort to take control of the Texas House. Buoyed by flipping 12 seats to their column in 2018 and believing they could ride a demographic wave to increased power, Democrats and their PACs spent tens of millions of dollars in this effort. 

In 2018, 27 Texas House districts were decided by under 10 percentage points. We’ve been closely tracking the donations and spending in those races in our Battleground 2020 series. 

The Outcome

After all the money and chatter, the balance of power in the Texas House remained exactly the same, with Republicans in control. Democrats gained one seat, but so did Republicans. Texas House Rep. Sarah Davis (HD 134), ranked as the most liberal member of the Republican caucus, lost her seat to Democrat Ann Johnson. In the other column, former Texas House Rep. Mike Schofield, a Republican, won the seat back from Democrat Gina Calanni (HD 132).

Here are the battleground results, race by race:

House District2020 WinnerIncumbent/Challenger/OtherPercentage of Victory 2020* Biggest Spender in this Race?TUSA Pre-Election Prediction (✔ if correct)
26Jacey Jetton (R)Open Seat Winner
3.62%
YesLikely Republican ✔
28Gary Gates (R)Special Election Winner**10.58%YesLikely Republican ✔
45Erin Zweiner (D)Incumbent Winner1.08%YesToss-Up
47Vikki Goodwin (D)Incumbent Winner0.98%NoLeans Democrat ✔
52James Talarico (D)Incumbent Winner2.88%YesLikely Democrat ✔
54Brad Buckley (R)Incumbent Winner7.02%NoLikely Republican ✔
64Lynn Stucky (R)Incumbent Winner9.84%YesToss-Up
65Michelle Beckley (D)Incumbent Winner3.00%YesLeans Republican
66Matt Shaheen (R)Incumbent Winner1.21%YesLeans Democrat
67Jeff Leach (R)Incumbent Winner3.60%NoLikely Republican ✔
92Jeff Cason (R)Open Seat Winner3.81%YesToss-Up
93Matt Krause (R)Incumbent Winner9.16%YesLeans Republican ✔
94Tony Tinderholt (R)Incumbent Winner5.16%YesLeans Republican ✔
96David Cook (R)Challenger Winner5.09%NoLeans Republican ✔
97Craig Goldman (R)Incumbent Winner7.51%YesToss-Up
102Ana-Maria Ramos (D)Incumbent Winner7.82%NoLeans Democrat ✔
105Terry Meza (D)Incumbent Winner12.91%YesLeans Democrat ✔
108Morgan Meyer (R)Incumbent Winner1.62%YesLeans Republican ✔
112Angie Chen Button (R)Incumbent Winner0.33%NoToss-Up
113Rhetta Bowers (D)Incumbent Winner3.54%YesLikely Republican
121Steve Allison (R)Incumbent Winner7.06%NoToss-Up
126Sam Harless (R)Incumbent Winner6.60%NoLeans Republican ✔
132Mike Schofield (R)Challenger Winner3.71%NoLeans Democrat
134Ann Johnson (D)Challenger Winner4.60%YesLeans Democrat ✔
135Jon Rosenthal (D)Incumbent Winner0.43%YesToss-Up
136John Bucy (D)Incumbent Winner10.21%YesLikely Democrat ✔
138Lacey Hull (R)Open Seat Winner3.24%NoLeans Democrat
*Some candidates improved upon the margins their parties posted in 2018, including in Districts 28, 105, and 136, where Reps. Gary Gates, Terry Meza, and John Bucy all expanded their margins past the 10 percent mark, respectively.

**Gary Gates was elected in a special election to replace Republican Rep. Jon Zerwas, who resigned from his seat before the 2020 election.

Was The Money The It-Factor?

Overall, the battleground results show candidates who outspent their opponents had a better election night, claiming victory 63 percent of the time, or in 17 of 27 these battleground races. This is a lower correlation than for all the legislative elections combined, where the candidate who spent most won 91 percent of those races. 

In fact, since the money spent by the campaign does not include money spent by friendly PACs or independent expenditures on the candidate’s behalf, the correlation between money spent and a win is even lower. Incumbency remains the strongest predictor of victory. In races with an incumbent, he or she won 92 percent of the time.

How Did We Do?

A few weeks ago, we thought it would be fun to make our own predictions about who would win these battleground races. Since our expertise is campaign finance, we based our predictions primarily on an examination of the money in the races. We also paid close attention to the number of donations from citizens inside the candidates’ district, the margin of victory from 2018, and the advantages of incumbency. In the 20 races not listed as toss-ups, our predictions were accurate in 15 of the races. In the 7 races we listed as toss-ups, Republicans won 5 contests, while Democrats won the remaining 2 races. (You can see how we did in each individual race in the chart above, but we predicted that more than two districts would flip one way or the other). While we enjoyed a 75 percent accuracy rate — certainly better than many pollsters fared in 2020 — we’ll likely stick to analyzing the money and letting you draw your own conclusions.


For a full breakdown of the money raised and spent by candidates in these 27 races and other House races across Texas, visit our Election Races page.

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