Battleground 2020: Texas House of Representatives offers clear, easy-to-understand analysis of the 27 races that were decided by less than 10 percentage points in 2018.
What Makes These Races So Important?
The outcome of battle to control the Texas House is one of the most-anticipated political stories of 2020. For the first time in nearly two decades, Democrats believe they have a real chance to take control of the Texas House, and with it, control of the all-important redistricting process. Redistricting occurs once every ten years following the census, and allows the party in control of the House to draw political maps — not just for the state House and Senate, but also for Texas seats in the U.S. Congress. The stakes are high — the party that controls the Texas House after the November elections will augment their power in the Texas legislature, increase their odds of winning U.S. Congressional seats, and likely cement their power in Texas for the foreseeable future.
Two Reasons Democrats Could Take the Texas House: Momentum and Money
Democrats flipped 12 seats from red to blue in 2018, and they hope to build on that momentum. If they can hold those seats and flip nine more, they will take control of the House. Democrats are hoping the combination of anti-Trump sentiment along with political turmoil can be used to suppress voter turnout on the right.
On the money front, every Democratic candidate is fundraising off this fight. The latest campaign finance reports are live on our site, andDemocratic candidates, along with the political action committees (PACs) that support them, are flush with money — from inside and outside Texas.
Republicans Stock Up To Play Defense
Texas House Republicans are pledging millions of dollars toward PACs that support Republican incumbents, including Texas Leads and Leading Texas Forward. While these two PACS are dedicated to defending incumbents, other Republican donors and PACs will be trying to retake the seats lost in 2018.
The Races to Watch
These 27 House Districts were won by less than 10 percentage points in 2018 and are the most likely to flip (one way or another) in 2020. Click on any race to see the latest numbers from the race to raise campaign cash in these elections (they’ve all been updated since the primary runoffs). You can also trace the money in these battleground races back to the beginning — including all the candidates that lost in the primaries — using our new Candidate Races feature.
| Incumbent | House District | Percentage Victory 2018 | Seeking Reelection? |
| Dwayne Bohac (R) | 138 | 0.1% | No |
| Gina Calanni (D) | 132 | 0.17% | Yes |
| Morgan Meyer (R) | 108 | 0.28% | Yes |
| Matt Shaheen (R) | 66 | 0.58% | Yes |
| Angie Chen Button (R) | 112 | 2.08% | Yes |
| Jeff Leach (R) | 67 | 2.3% | Yes |
| Michelle Beckley (D) | 65 | 2.32% | Yes |
| Jonathan Stickland (R) | 92 | 2.39% | No |
| Jon Rosenthal (D) | 135 | 3.16% | Yes |
| Erin Zweiner (D) | 45 | 3.2% | Yes |
| James Talarico (D) | 52 | 3.46% | Yes |
| Bill Zedler (R) | 96 | 3.63% | Yes |
| Vikki Goodwin (D) | 47 | 4.8% | Yes |
| Rick Miller (R) | 26 | 4.82% | No |
| Ana-Maria Ramos (D) | 102 | 5.76% | Yes |
| Sarah Davis (R) | 134 | 6.34% | Yes |
| Rhetta Bowers (D) | 113 | 6.96% | Yes |
| Brad Buckley (R) | 54 | 7.6% | Yes |
| Matt Krause (R) | 93 | 7.74% | Yes |
| Jon Zerwas (R) | 28 | 8.32% | No |
| Lynn Stucky (R) | 64 | 8.32% | Yes |
| Craig Goldman (R) | 97 | 8.33% | Yes |
| Steve Allison (R) | 121 | 8.44% | Yes |
| Tony Tinderholt (R) | 94 | 8.58% | Yes |
| Terry Meza (D) | 105 | 9.48% | Yes |
| John Bucy (D) | 136 | 9.64% | Yes |
| Sam Harless (R) | 126 | 9.68% | Yes |
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