Texas candidates just filed their semiannual campaign finance reports, giving voters a behind-the-scenes look into their fundraising as they head into the final stretch before the November elections. 

To give you a fair comparison, we pulled the numbers from the same time frame in 2018. The headline from the data was easy: donations to Democratic candidates for the Texas House and Senate have skyrocketed — up 69 percent over 2018 to be precise. In contrast, donations to Republicans have dropped 44 percent. It’s worth noting that the number of Democratic candidates has remained level while total Democratic fundraising has increased. On the other hand, there are 11 percent fewer Republican candidates this time around, accounting for some — but certainly not all — of the 44 percent decline in donations.

Take A Look For Yourself:

What’s Going On?

People usually don’t give a reason why they do or don’t click “Donate,” but here are some possible explanations given the current political climate. Some we’ve seen before. Some, like many things in 2020, are new.

1. Political Unrest Benefitted Democratic Candidates. ActBlue Texas is a conduit PAC that supports state-level Democrats. They enjoyed a remarkable spike in contributions during the second quarter of this year, making them the second highest grossing political action committee in the state in 2020. In fact, Black Lives Matter uses the national arm of ActBlue for their fundraising efforts, which undoubtedly has raised the profile of their state affiliates, including ActBlue Texas.
2. Oil Took A Beating. The oil industry has historically supported Texas Republicans, but when the price dropped to a record low this spring, donors may have been less able to give.
3. Democrats Are Highly Motivated. Buoyed by the 12 Texas House seats Democrats won from Republicans in 2018 and needing only nine more to take control, Democrats have taken an “all hands on deck” approach to recruiting and funding candidates. If Democrats can flip the Texas House, they will control the upcoming redistricting process, augment their power in the Texas legislature, and increase their odds of winning U.S. Congressional seats. 
4. Republicans May Be Prioritizing National Battles. Texas Republicans may be shifting their dollars to the national political scene —  supporting their embattled president, trying to win back the US. House and hold on to the U.S. Senate.
5. Statewide Candidates Aren’t On The Ballot. Most “statewide candidates,” those who represent all Texans (rather than a local district) like the Governor, Attorney General, and Land Commissioner, for example, aren’t on the ballot again until 2022. Since these offices are all held by Republicans, fewer Republican donor dollars are needed to defend these seats. 

Money vs. Momentum

Yes, Republicans are still ahead in total donations to their Texas  House and Senate candidates — $28 million compared to $25 million — but the momentum appears to be with the Democrats. In the last election cycle, Republican candidates to the Texas legislature had out-raised their Democratic counterparts more than 3-to-1 by this time, not surprising in a state that has been solidly red for decades. This time around, Democrats are gaining rapidly and could easily out-raise their Republican counterparts by election day.

If Democrats can turn their increased fundraising into increased turnout at the polls, November could be difficult for Republicans in Texas.

Join us as we bring you up-to-the-minute numbers and analysis from the money in Texas politics as we head toward November. Ready to dig deeper? The latest reports are live. Explore any Texas candidate, PAC, donor and track what’s happening on the road to Austin in 2020.