This year’s race for Texas State House District 115 (HD115) was the third battle in a row between State Representative Matt Rinaldi and former State Representative Bennett Ratliff.

Since 2012, when businessman Matt Rinaldi challenged sitting State Rep. Bennett Ratliff, it has been game on. State Rep. Ratliff fended off the challenger to hold the seat in 2012. In a 2014 rematch, Mr. Rinaldi again challenged State Rep. Ratliff and, in a reversal of the previous outcome, was successful in knocking off the incumbent. This year, seeking to regain the seat, Mr. Ratliff challenged State Rep. Rinaldi but came up short on election day.

Here’s a quick look at the numbers:

HD115 is an urban district in the northwest corner of Dallas County. Not quite the heart of Dallas, yet not quite suburbia, HD115 is as economically and socially diverse as they come. Coppell, Carrollton, Irving, Farmers Branch, and small parts of Dallas and Addison make up the district. State Rep. Rinaldi resides in Irving, while Mr. Ratliff resides in Coppell.

Challengers rarely have the ability to financially out-raise an incumbent. If this happens, it almost certainly spells disaster for the incumbent on election day. The fact that the outcome didn’t follow this trend suggests State Rep. Rinaldi has developed exceedingly strong relationships with the voters of HD115.

Key takeaways from the HD115  race:

1. Lots of attention from outside the district.
   Money from outside the district often flows into Texas House and Senate races, as advocacy groups from across the state try to help particular candidates. Taking this fact into account, the percentage of money raised from outside the district for both candidates was still remarkably high. Over 90% of money raised by both candidates came from people or groups that don’t reside in HD115. Of State Rep. Rinaldi’s top 25 donors, only one was in HD115, while of Mr. Ratliff’s top 25 donors, only two were in the district. With donors and advocacy groups from across the state making major investments in this race, it’s clear many saw this as a bellwether for the future of the Texas House.
2. Candidates go all-in.
   It isn’t uncommon for men and women seeking public office to loan money to their own campaigns. In fact, personal loans are becoming more and more common. In the race to represent HD115, both candidates made loans to their own campaigns, big ones. State Rep. Rinaldi loaned himself $133,764.37, while Mr. Ratliff loaned himself $15,521.38. With no guarantee of winning, or of raising enough money to be repaid, the investment of personal money shows just how badly each candidate wanted to win.
3. The number that matters.
   The monetary numbers in this race could hardly be closer. In almost every category, the candidates matched one another. From the amount of money raised in-district, to cost per vote, the race was neck and neck. Ultimately though, the number that mattered the most, votes, wasn’t close at all. State Rep. Rinaldi’s 53.45% of the vote proves that while many in political circles viewed this race as a toss-up, voters in the district strongly favored the incumbent. Having out-raised a sitting state representative while being a former state representative himself, and yet still not being able to pull off a victory, likely means Mr. Ratliff won’t be challenging State Rep. Rinaldi again anytime soon.

Before you go…

Interesting note from our analysis:

Education advocates/groups clearly cared about this race, with Mr. Ratliff receiving support from those seeking to push more money to public schools (Charles Butt and Texas Parent PAC), while State Rep. Rinaldi was supported by those advocating for more choices in education (Texas Homeschool Coalition PAC, Texans for Education Reform PAC, and Empower Texans PAC).

Our Race to Raise series takes a deeper look at the most high-profile races of the election cycle, focusing specifically on money raised by those seeking to serve in public office. Stay tuned for the next installment.