Arguably the most surprising electoral upset in the Texas Republican Party primary occurred in House District 20 (HD20). This district is comprised of Burnet and Milam counties, along with the northern portion of Williamson County. The race saw two-term incumbent State Representative Marsha Farney face off with, and ultimately lose to, Colonel Terry Wilson, a retired U.S. Army veteran.

Here’s a quick look at the numbers:

Despite only serving two terms, State Rep. Farney had been appointed to multiple key committees in the Texas House, including the House Committee on State Affairs and the House Public Education Committee. Rumored to be tapped by House Speaker Joe Straus as the next chair of the Public Education Committee, Farney received $30,000 from the Texas House Leadership Fund (a PAC under the direction of Speaker Straus).

Colonel Terry Wilson raised significantly less money and spent far less than his opponent, yet managed to win the election by almost 3,000 votes.

Key takeaways from the HD20 race:

1. Cost per vote.
   State Rep. Farney spent roughly $25 per each vote cast for her. In stark contrast, Colonel Wilson spent just $7 per vote. Wilson’s ability to win the race while spending so little per vote is an impressive feat in any political campaign.
2. In-District Donations.
   State Rep. Farney received minimal support in district, with only 6% of all contributions coming from her constituents. In contrast, 62 out of the 100 contributions to Colonel Wilson’s campaign came from inside HD20. While an individual, in-district donation is usually smaller than a contribution from a PAC outside the district, it is valuable in other ways.  An in-district donor will show up to vote, likely volunteer for the campaign in other capacities, and recruit his or her family and friends to vote for the candidate. This vast discrepancy in individual, in-district donations suggests residents were unhappy with State Rep. Farney’s representation over the last four years and ready for change.
3. Contrasting top donors.
   The financial dynamics of HD20 reflect the same power struggle found in many of the contested Republican primary races of the 2016 cycle. Conservative advocacy organizations proposing reform in the Capitol were pitted against more moderate organizations seeking to maintain the status-quo. Given State Rep. Farney’s close relationship with the current House leadership, conservative advocacy organizations invested significantly in Colonel Wilson. These groups included Empower Texans PAC, Texas Homeschool Coalition PAC, and Texans for Education Reform PAC. Political action committees funded in large part by House Speaker Joe Straus, Texas House Leadership Fund and the Associated Republicans of Texas Campaign Fund,  were the incumbent’s top two donors.

Before you go…

An interesting note from our analysis:

When looking at donations to candidates, the date of the gift often speaks more loudly than the amount. While this seems contrary to conventional wisdom, the donation date reveals true levels of support. Lots of people are willing to risk capital, but it’s when they risk that capital that determines their impact.

An example: Colonel Wilson received large support from multiple conservative advocacy groups. Both the Empower Texans PAC and Texas Homeschool Coalition PAC made their donations in February 2016, while Texans for Education Reform PAC and Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC made their donations in April 2016. The significance? The Republican primary election date was March 1, 2016. Empower Texans PAC and Texas Homeschool Coalition PAC invested without knowing whether Colonel Wilson would win or not, whereas Texans for Education Reform PAC and Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC did not donate until the outcome was already determined. While  Colonel Wilson undoubtedly appreciates all the financial support he received, one suspects he’ll remember who backed him while there was still risk involved.

Our Race to Raise series takes a deeper look at the most high-profile races of the election cycle, focusing specifically on money raised by those seeking to serve in public office. Stay tuned for the next installment.