Rumors have been swirling in the political world about what’s going on with fundraising — who’s ahead and who’s behind. We decided to pull the data, do the math, and bring you the numbers. We compared 2020 to the 2018 election cycle. What we found was, frankly, shocking. 

Let’s Start With The Numbers

The most recent data available (latest Texas filing deadline) was February 24, 2020, so we pulled the same filing time frame for 2018 to give you an “apples-to-apples” comparison. 

Right off the top, we noticed that the number of people running for Texas House and Senate has declined since 2018 — this alone is surprising. But the real story is in the donations. The number of Democratic candidates has declined by two percent while donations to them have increased by 26 percent. The number of Republican candidates has decreased by 12 percent, but donations to them have dropped by an astounding 73 percent.

What makes these numbers especially interesting is that they come from before the coronavirus-related economic shutdown and before the collapse in the price of oil.

Since 2020 includes a presidential race — which typically drives higher engagement with politics at all levels — it’s also worth comparing numbers with 2016’s election cycle. This year’s  donation numbers look grim for Republicans in this model as well. Contributions to Republican candidates in 2020 are down 67 percent compared to 2016. Democrats are also behind, but only by eight percent. 

What’s Going On?

People usually don’t give a reason why they do or don’t click “Donate,” but here are some possible explanations given the current political climate:

1. Prioritizing National Battles – High interest in the presidential race may not be translating to more state-level Republican candidates and donations. Texas Republicans may be shifting their dollars to the national political scene —  supporting their embattled president and trying to win back the US. House of Representatives.
2. Democrats Are Highly Motivated – Buoyed by the 12 Texas House seats Democrats won from Republicans in 2018 and needing only nine more to take control, Democrats have taken an “all hands on deck” approach to recruiting and funding candidates. If Democrats can flip the Texas House and control the upcoming redistricting process, they augment their power in the Texas legislature and increase their odds of winning U.S. Congressional seats. 
3. Republican Leadership Called Off the Dogs – Well, to be more precise, they called off the challengers. Texas Speaker of the House Dennis Bonnen threatened all members of the House that if they recruited or supported any challenger, regardless of party, there would be consequences when the legislature resumed. Bonnen was subsequently embroiled in scandal and is not seeking reelection, but his pronouncement likely impacted the number of candidates and fundraising. Governor Abbott has likewise shifted to protecting incumbents this cycle, where we previously saw him backing an occasional newcomer.
4. Quality vs. Quantity – Republican donors may simply be less excited about their candidates. They may believe incumbents are secure enough in their positions to make support unnecessary or challenges pointless. 

What to Expect

The candidacy of Michael Bloomberg proved that money alone cannot buy an election, but donations certainly can indicate momentum and excitement. If Democrats can turn their increased fundraising into increased turnout at the polls, November could be difficult for Republicans.

The next financial reports will include donations through June 30, and those reports will undoubtedly show that fundraising was affected by the recent economic downturn. It is unlikely Republicans will have seen a spike in their contributions. Whatever happens, we will continue to bring you nonpartisan analysis about the money in Texas politics.

Let Us Know What YOU Think

We’d love to hear from you! What do you believe is behind this dramatic decline in donations to Republican candidates? Why do you think Democratic fundraising is up 26 percent? What will be the result in November? Will Democrats flip the Texas House?

Email us at editors@transparencyusa.org or join the conversation on Twitter or Facebook.

Related:

Top Ten Takeaways From The Money In The Texas 2020 Elections

Freedom Caucus Fundraising Down 62 Percent

Conservative Dollars Conspicuously Missing From Latest Campaign Finance Reports

Why Conservatives May Put Away the Checkbook for 2020